I feel like I've been writing a blog in a few days.
Personally, I had work, so I didn't have much time to write.
I couldn't even do the trading properly.
If it was a time when I couldn't concentrate, I shouldn't have traded...
I made a big mistake again because of my greed.
All that talk is just my excuse, just this is my skill right now.
That's why I did it, that's why I did it. That excuse doesn't mean anything.
Settlement of trading details and identification of problems in February
I've moved in the past week.
If it was a time when you couldn't fully concentrate, you shouldn't have traded.
I was trading short strokes, so that was a natural step.
These days, I was greedy because Bitcoin's rise is big and volatile.
And I made a few big mistakes and almost lost all the seeds I built in a month.
It's back to the seed of early February.
There is a big negative at the end of February and March 3.
If I couldn't respond properly, I shouldn't have taken a position..
But it's obvious and inexcusable that this is my mistake
I thought there seemed to be a strategic problem.
Trading Strategy and Criteria
Of the 29 days in February - 19 days were profitable, and 10 days were lost.
But I didn't get anything.
The winning rate is not bad at around 65%. Of course, it's higher than now, so I think it should go up to around 80%.
When you earn, you earn little by little, and when you lose, you lose much more.
The profit and loss costs are being misplaced.
You can't eat too much in the profit section, or you can't eat too long
It's a problem to eat too short and come out.
Eating too short and coming out is my convenience (mentally exhausting if I hold my position for a long time)
They come out quickly because of fear.
The loss line is mostly based on the Dow theory, which is the basis of my trade
The loss is a bit long because I grab it at a low point or a high point, but I don't think that's the problem.
You have to eat more raw fish.
Once you're buying and selling, profit and loss should be similar.
In that state, if the winning rate is 65%, it can lead to an increase in the seed.
It occurred to me that there was something wrong with the operation.
If you want to maintain enough position in the profitable section
You need to look at the bar chart in the longer time zone.
So far, I've seen it on the basis of about 15 minutes.
From now on, it will be changed to a two-hour salary standard.
That way, the problem becomes more frequent to do the night.
Once in position, it will remain for three to five days.
Then the risk goes up along with the profit.
Daily Volatility and Their Response
Yesterday alone, Bitcoin caused a 10% drop in an instant
If you were holding all the seeds in this state, there would have been a huge loss.
Of course, it doesn't matter if it's in kind, but it's a big blow if you use a little leverage.
In order to do swing trading, it's not the timing to reduce the risk
The entire seed must not be entered.
Now I'll take a position where I go back and forth between 25-50% of all seeds.
Leverage uses five times the same as before.
Even if there's a 10% drop and a rise in a day
If you hold a position of 250,000 of all seeds and have about five times the leverage, you will have room to respond.
How to identify trading signals
The first selling signal that we see is based on the Dow theory
Check the double bars or double bottoms.
And check at what stage the indicators of MACD and RSI are at.
The frequency of the sale depends on how many hours I will see the rod.
There is a difference in the viewing rod depending on whether it is scalping, short hit, or swing.
One minute for scalping, 15 minutes for a single, and an hour or two for a swing seems appropriate.
And strategies should be established for each trading style.
I think I was halfway between skeletoning and short hit.
But I think there's a problem with the strategy and operation
From March, I'm going to switch to swing.
1. There is a possibility that it is a transition in the Dow theory if the double bottom and the double stick come out.
2. At that time, we use MACD and RSI to check if there is an inflection, and to check the status of overbuying and overselling
3. Buy and sell positions of around 25% of seed money.
Instead of buying the entire seed at once and selling the whole seed, they also enter and withdraw several times.
It's not a single shot, but a swing, so I'll get the maximum profit
Rather than completely cutting off, the strategy is operated by appropriately mixing partial withdrawal and watering.
The reason why I do this is because I run it on a monthly basis
This is because stock accounts and coin in-kind accounts operate like this, and they have a much better rate of return.
If you use up a lot of energy with a single shot, rather than trading
Swing trading has a much better rate of return.
On top of that, it seems right to follow that method in futures trading, where you can use five times the leverage.
If you're really good at hitting a single
It is also possible to make 400% to 1000% profit per month.
I had that desire, too. I think that's why I kept strangling it and making mistakes and losing money.
I think it's time to get rid of my greed.
If the rate of return is around a few tens of percent per month, it is right to swing and trade.
Let's go step by step rather than going too fast and falling down the cliff.
Even if it takes a year or two, you can slowly move forward step by step.
From March, we will move to a new strategy more calmly.
The Bitcoin Market Narrative
ETF ETF ETF ETF ETF ETF has risen endlessly due to the all-round theory of ETF.
And in the most important dollar terms, it is very slightly above the all-time high.
And a huge decline began.
It fell 10 per cent a day.
There was no particular narrative
It seems to be a profit realization that is common at all highs.
As much speculative capital has been introduced so far, the return has also been large, and it does not seem to be a special problem.
The same goes for Nasdaq.
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