Trading log 20231028 - Set direction for long term, hit and miss for short term.

 Traders always have three concerns. Let's think about it together. I leave my thoughts. If you leave comments about what others think, I'll learn it. 




-What will you trade?


You can buy and sell stocks, you can buy and sell gifts or options. There are hundreds of things that can be traded, such as raw materials, and so on, you can buy and sell indexes like etf. Trading is not just about sitting on a computer and selling listed products, but also about actually trading iron, crude oil, and other products in trading companies. 


Your strategy may be everything, or you may be trying to make a big profit by grasping the long-term trend. There are products that can be done according to one's strategy and some that can't. If you sell products such as coffee beans and oranges in real life, saying you will make a big profit, you can make all values zero. You shouldn't pick the event because many people do it without such basic concerns. 


I have to think about strategies that I can put into practice and choose the right product. 


In the case of bitcoin spot, I think it is a product that allows long-term investment. I think very well of the future of blockchain. Just as we can't imagine living without the internet in our lives, blockchain itself will become our critical infrastructure. If the Internet is oil, blockchain is a pipeline. Even without a pipeline, it is possible to transport it by loading it on a train or truck. However, in terms of efficiency and security, installing a pipeline has overwhelming benefits. Blockchain will give us a lot of utility with layers on the Internet. 


And I have no doubt that Bitcoin will play the underlying role of those blockchains altcoins. It is a very volatile product, but I think it is a very attractive product for long-term investment over 10 years. So I'm also investing in bitcoin spot. 


But bitcoin futures investment is a completely different concept of product. I'm not investing because Bitcoin's prospects are bright. There are still a few people who have understood and accepted the concept, and there are also blind believers. One side calls it fraud and the other side calls it the future of humanity. Volatility arises in such a gap. It is futures trading that makes a profit in enormous volatility. If the fluctuation is small, it is difficult to gain profits from futures trading. 


I think Bitcoin futures are the most attractive in the form of trading that takes on volatility. The barriers to entry are low. Even if it's a very small amount, you can create an exchange account with one email address and make a transaction. Other gift sales have to be quite expensive at the upfront and accounting is tricky. So I think it is the best product for people who want to study gift trading. 



- In what direction will you position yourself? Is it long? Or short?


Once I've decided what products I've decided to buy, I have to decide whether to bet on the rise or the fall. 


You can also find what suits you as the standard of judgment that makes a decision. There is no law. So there's a good side, but that's why it's difficult. You can judge the value of the product and think about whether it is overvalued or undervalued, and you can read the psychology of market participants while looking at the chart like me. There are so many different techniques in the world to look at the charts, and I think it's basically looking at the psychological state of the market participants. I think you should buy it in a market that is terrified, and sell it in a market that is cheering the other way around. This is my opinion and you can set your own judgment criteria according to your experience. 


You can make long short bets according to the time schedule where you buy and sell. That will also always be a concern for traders. 




- When am I going to buy and sell it?


This is also a very important point. Of the three points I mentioned today, I cannot weigh the importance. Those three concerns are the alpha and omega of trading and all. There is nothing more important. But the order of judgment is


1. What should I trade?


2. Which direction should I bat? Long? Short?


3. When should I buy it and sell it?


You can think about it. You only have to make these three judgments. 


No. 1 will not be a frequent concern. Some people might be doing multiple trades at the same time, but if you've decided what to buy, I recommend turning off the button and focusing on everything else. 


When it comes to frequency, I think it is at least possible to worry 2 times compared to worry 3 times 3. Depending on whether you are a skelper, a single hit, or a swing trade, you will have to decide how often you should consider the direction and switch. 


Don't be too greedy to put on all the long shorts. Too much greed leads to anger. 


Don't forget that you're greedy enough just to be a trader already and need to downshift a bit more.




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